What is the situation of China's steel exports in 2025?In 2024, China's steel exports, including its direct exports and indirect exports, have shown strong growth momentum. It is expected that in the New Year, the influencing factors of China's steel exports (including indirect exports) will increase or decrease, showing two characteristics of huge export volume and year-on-year growth.
First, in 2024, China's steel exports are strong in two aspects
China's steel exports in 2024 are relatively strong, including its direct exports and indirect exports. According to the General Administration of Customs statistics, from January to December 2024, China exported 11.716 million tons of steel, an increase of 22.7%. Among them, 9.727 million tons of steel were exported in December, an increase of 25.9%, and the growth rate continued to increase. If you add billet exports (excluding crude forgings exports) in the same period, it is estimated that the national crude steel exports (steel exports converted) in 2024 reached 120 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of China's crude steel production in the same period, and becoming a powerful engine to promote the stable growth of the national total steel demand in 2024.
Second, in the New Year, China's steel exports show two major characteristics
Continued huge volume scale and year-on-year growth will be the two major characteristics of China's steel exports in 2025, including mechanical and electrical products and other steel consumption products exports.
1.Exports continue to show a huge volume scale
Preliminary estimates, it is expected that the national steel exports (direct exports) will remain at about 0.8-100 million tons in the New Year, still a huge number of scale level. In the same period, the indirect export volume of steel products such as mechanical and electrical products will be much higher than its direct export. In other words, in the New Year, China's crude steel exports from the above two aspects (steel and steel consumption products exports) will account for more than a quarter of domestic crude steel production, or even more.
2.Year-on-year export growth continued to fall
In 2023, China's steel exports increased by 36.2% over the previous year, and steel exports increased by 22.7% in 2024, and the export growth rate fell more, which is mainly due to the impact of a large increase in the comparison base. It is expected that this influence factor will continue to appear in 2025, and will also strengthen. Because after all, in 2024, China's steel exports have reached more than 100 million tons, and the exports of steel products such as automobiles, ships, machinery and equipment, and home appliances have reached a high level, it is unrealistic to continue to have a high growth rate.
What is the situation of China's steel exports in 2025? According to preliminary estimates, the growth rate of China's steel exports will fall to less than 5% in the New Year, and even do not rule out the possibility of negative growth in some months.
